Budget Variance Alerts
Figured · FY25-26 · Actual vs Budget
Total Income
$1.45M
-6.5% vs budget
Total Expenses
$661k
+46.4% over budget
| Account | Actual | Budget | Variance | Severity |
|---|
Morning Intelligence Brief
5 Apr 2026
Capital Deployment: Level 4 — Preservation Mode. Deliberately destocked. Cash position strong. Zero trade cattle on hand. Breeding core of ~830 head carrying the business floor. Re-entry signals: 0/8 active. Next review: Weekly trigger scan. Weather: Drier autumn outlook confirmed by BOM. Strategy: Hold cash, monitor triggers, maintain re-entry plan readiness.
Rolling 12-Month Performance · As at 30-Mar-26 · Updated from Google Sheets
Interest Cover
-1.00x
Target >1.75x
—
GM / DSE
$61.09
Target >$65
—
Equity Ratio
93.1%
Target >70%
—
EBIT
-$176,889
—
EBIT / GP
-15.6%
Target >30%
—
ROAM
-0.6%
Target >4%
—
ROE
-1.2%
Target >5%
—
Turnover Ratio
3.5%
Target >7%
—
Gross Margin Ratio
52.0%
Target >70%
—
OH Ratio
59.7%
Target <35%
—
Expense Ratio
123.3%
Target <70%
—
Interest as % GP
15.6%
Target <15%
—
Net Profit
-$353,043
—
Gross Margin $
$587,768
—
Gross Profit
$1,131,062
—
Cashflow — FY 2025–26
Actuals Aug–Feb · Forecast Mar–Sep
Cash InCash OutNet CashDashed = forecast
EYCI — 12 Month Trend
Eastern Young Cattle Indicator · c/kg cwt
Weather — Nundle & Topdale
7-day forecast · Open-Meteo
Today
☀️
22°/8°
Sat
⛅
27°/9°
Sun
⛅
27°/12°
Mon
🌤
25°/10°
💧 2mm
Tue
🌧
21°/11°
💧 8mm
Wed
⛅
23°/9°
💧 1mm
Thu
☀️
26°/8°
Forecast Cattle Sales — FY 2025–26
Projected sale tranches · EYCI-based revenue modelling
AI Strategic Advisor
Live analysis · Updated with every sync
UrgentPreservation mode active. Cash strong. Zero trade cattle. IC at critical levels. Maintain current position until re-entry triggers activate.
RiskPasture deficit incoming. BOM below-median rainfall for New England autumn. Monitor carrying capacity weekly.
OpportunityRe-entry preparation. Build pre-set buy triggers now while prices are observed. First mover advantage when season turns.
ForecastGenetics floor holding. Breeding core of ~830 head maintains business value. IVF calves on ground. Registered herd building.
Governing Principles
⚖️ Capital before production
🌿 Grass governs all stocking
📈 Never chase the last 10%
🧬 Value/DSE over volume
🏦 Breeders never as collateral
🌿 Grass governs all stocking
📈 Never chase the last 10%
🧬 Value/DSE over volume
🏦 Breeders never as collateral
Revenue YTD
$2.17M
+12% vs budget
Gross Profit
$1.27M
58.4% margin
Net Profit YTD
$378k
+$84k vs budget
Feb Net
–$165k
Loss month
Expense Ratio
106%
Target <70%
EBIT & Net Profit — Monthly
Actuals Aug–Feb · Forecast Mar–Jul
Income Statement — FY 2025–26
Aug 2025 – Feb 2026 · 8 months YTD
| Category | YTD Actual | Budget | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cattle Sales | $1,980,000 | $1,760,000 | +$220k |
| Agistment & Other | $190,000 | $180,000 | +$10k |
| Total Revenue | $2,170,000 | $1,940,000 | +$230k |
| Direct Costs (livestock) | ($900,000) | ($830,000) | –$70k |
| Gross Profit | $1,270,000 | $1,110,000 | +$160k |
| Labour | ($320,000) | ($290,000) | –$30k |
| Finance / NAB Interest | ($201,500) | ($196,000) | –$5k |
| Property & Maintenance | ($210,000) | ($185,000) | –$25k |
| Admin & Other | ($160,000) | ($145,000) | –$15k |
| Net Profit YTD | $378,500 | $294,000 | +$84k |
Expense Breakdown
YTD · Aug–Feb actuals
P&L Intelligence
AI analysis of financial performance
MarginGM ratio at 58.4% is just below the 60% MLA top-quartile benchmark.
LabourLabour costs at $320k are 10% over budget and represent 37% of total overheads.
RevenueRevenue tracking +$230k vs budget. Current destocking strategy preserving cash.
Cash In YTD
$2.17M
Cash Out YTD
$1.79M
Net Profit (12m)
+$378k
Worst Month
–$165k
February
vs Budget
+$84k
Monthly Cash Position — FY 2025–26
Net cash per month · Forecast dashed from Mar
Cashflow Intelligence
Forward-looking cash analysis
Cash AlertFeb was the worst month at –$165k net outflow. Preservation mode protecting cash position.
ForecastCash position strong following deliberate destock. Minimal outflows in preservation mode.
Interest Cover
0.06x
Target: >1.75x
GM Ratio
58.4%
Target: >60%
GM / DSE
$36.58
Target: >$65
Equity Ratio
89.2%
Target: >35%
ROAM
0.03%
Target: >4%
KPI Trends — 8 Month Rolling
vs MLA top-quartile benchmarks
NAB Covenant Monitor
Live vs thresholds · Bear / Base / Bull
| Covenant | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan to Value | 10.8% | <65% | Met |
| Debt Service Cover | 0.06x | >1.25x | Breach |
| Equity Ratio | 89.2% | >35% | Met |
| Interest Coverage | 1.51x | >1.25x | Met |
| Net Debt / EBIT | 1.4x | <5x | Met |
KPI Intelligence
Performance analysis & targets
CriticalInterest Cover is the #1 priority. At 0.06x, well below NAB minimum. Revenue generation needed.
BenchmarkMLA Top Quartile: GM ratio at 97% of target. ROAM weakest metric.
Covenant Simulator
IC After Sale
3.95x
Cattle Price Indicators — Live
MLA Statistics API · National saleyard data · Updated daily
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Market Cycle Position
LATE LIQUIDATION
MEDIUM
Selling pressure easing but prices still weak
Price PercentileEYCI at 56th percentile — mid-range
Price TrendFalling — all indicators down this week
BGC Re-Entry Implication
Selling pressure easing. Monitor for floor formation. Re-entry: not yet — wait for price stabilisation signal.
Eastern Seaboard Saleyard Snapshot
All MLA-tracked saleyards · QLD / NSW / VIC · Feeder Steer c/kg lwt
Best Paying Yard Today
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| Yard | State | Feeder c/kg | vs National | Head | Last Sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Cattle Prices
AUS vs US · MLA Statistics API
| Indicator | AUS | US | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Seasonal Anomaly Monitor
Flags indicators deviating >1.5 std dev from historical
EYCI — 12 Month Analysis
MLA National · c/kg cwt · Breakeven overlay
RE-ENTRY SIGNAL MONITOR
WATCHING
Capital Deployment Ladder: Level 4 — Preservation Mode
2 / 8
SIGNALS GREEN
1Slaughter TrendAssessing weekly slaughter data...Need: falling 4+ weeks
2Feeder Steer Value463.71c — 70th percentileNeed: below 40th pctl
3Price MomentumFalling — potential value formingNeed: rising 2+ weeks
4Lotfeeder DemandMixed signals from MLA cycle dataNeed: active placement
5Export Demand134,965t — exports activeNeed: trending up YoY
6Seasonal WindowEntering autumn — mixed historicalNeed: positive window
7Feed PositionDrier autumn outlook — conservativeNeed: feed for full turn
8Agent IntelligenceNo recent agent reportsNeed: strong competition
Feeder Steer Price Forecast
Data-driven probability range · MLA historical & seasonal analysis
Bear / Base / Bull range. Not a prediction — a data-driven probability envelope.
Pre-Sale Brief Generator
Run before every sale · NLRS saleyard data
Revenue Scenario Builder
Adjust EYCI, head count, weight — see impact on IC, debt
Sale Revenue
$447k
IC After Sale
5.04x
Remaining Debt
$2.79M
Signal
🟢 Strong Sell
$/head/month
$165
Trade Decision Engine
8-point checklist
Re-Entry Checklist
❌Cash position comfortable
❌Feed on hand sufficient
❌NLRS prices at entry level
❌$200+ gross margin per head
❌DSE capacity available
❌NAB debt not at ceiling
❌Forward curve flat/contango
❌Exit defined before buying
RE-ENTRY STATUS
0/8 — NOT READY
Carrying Capacity Forecast
6-month outlook · BOM median
Weather — Nundle & Topdale
7-day forecast · BOM / Open-Meteo
Today
☀️
22°/8°
Sat
⛅
27°/9°
Sun
⛅
27°/12°
Mon
🌤
25°/10°
💧 2mm
Tue
🌧
21°/11°
💧 8mm
Wed
⛅
23°/9°
💧 1mm
Thu
☀️
26°/8°
Monthly Rainfall — Nundle
12 months actual vs LTA
Pasture Intelligence
Feed position & seasonal outlook
SeasonBOM: Drier autumn ahead. Below-median rainfall probability for New England. Plan conservative stocking.
Decision Log & Action Tracker
Strategic decisions · AI-scored
31
Mar
COMPLETED: Deliberate destock executed
All trade cattle sold. Cash position maximised. Level 4 preservation activated.
Outcome: Cash strong. Business on genetics floor.
15
Mar
REVIEW: Post-Easter further destock considered
80-100 PTIC spring cows. Drivers: feed position, risk reduction, PTIC market strong.
Decision: Under review. Monitor post-Easter market.
02
Mar
COMPLETED: IVF calves on ground
100 registered weaner heifers being retained. Genetics program actively building.
Outcome: Registered herd growing. Premium asset class.
Decision Intelligence
AI tracks decisions & outcomes
PatternDecisive action taken. Destock executed early. Cash preserved. Aligns with “hope is not a strategy” principle.
Re-Entry Readiness
Triggers Active0/8
Cash PositionStrong
Herd on Genetics FloorActive
Herd Composition & Performance
Live inventory by class
| Class | Count | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Autumn IVF Recipients | 85 | Calving |
| Spring PTIC Cows | 471 | In calf |
| Spring IVF Embryo Recipients | 144 | In calf |
| Autumn Reg. Yearling Heifers | 30 | Building |
| Registered Weaner Heifers | 100 | Retained |
| Total Herd | ~830 |
Weight Gain Tracker
Average daily gain by class · 30-day rolling
Herd Intelligence
AI performance analysis
GeneticsRegistered herd building. 100 weaner heifers + 30 yearlings retained. All IVF calves retained as registered females.
FloorBreeding core is the business floor. ~830 head carrying the operation through preservation mode. Revenue independent of cattle cycle.
Herd Health
Body Condition3.5/5
Fertility Rate89%
Weaning Rate92%
Trade Cattle Status
ZERO ON HAND
Deliberately destocked. Watching for re-entry signals.
Capital Ladder
LEVEL 4
Preservation Mode
Re-Entry Signals
0 / 8
NOT READY
Current Herd Breakdown
Live from Google Sheets · DSE ratings per RCS calculator
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| Mob Description | Head | Location | Status | DSE/Head | Total DSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading herd data... | |||||
| TOTAL | — | — | |||
| DSE Capacity (Nundle + Topdale) | 16,050 | — | |||
Live Margin Calculator
Offline — pure maths, no API calls. Use at saleyards.
Cost of Carry Method
Auto-calculated: $—/hd/wk
Source: Google Sheets — Livestock Direct Costs / Head / 52 wks
Inputs
Results
Buy Value /Head
$1,400
Sell Value /Head
$2,250
Total Cost of Carry /Head
$206
Gross Margin /Head
$644
Margin /Head /Month
$161
Total Mob Margin
$64,400
Total Buy Value
$140,000
Doubles Money?
YES
Clears $100/hd/mo?
YES
TRADE SIGNAL
GO
All criteria met — margin positive, doubles money, clears $100/hd/mo